As part of the ACMS Public Seminar Series, Dr Andrew Selee recently (20 August 2025) presented on ‘Demographic Change and Migration Policy.’ Dr Selee is the president of the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a non-partisan, independent think tank, which focuses on data, analysis, and prospective ideas for migration policy.
The world is undergoing rapid demographic change, with most upper and upper-middle-income countries dropping below replacement level fertility and many middle-income countries following close behind. As populations shrink in these countries, immigration will become one of the few ways that countries maintain a robust labour force and ensure fiscal solvency, even taking into account productivity gains and changes in workforce needs brought about by technological innovation. And African countries will almost certainly be the source of most of the migrants that are willing to move to these rapidly aging societies. However, this transition is likely to be less than smooth, with increased migration also leading to significant push-back within destination countries and to calls for greater border controls.
According to Dr Selee, managing this transition effectively will require building legal pathways proactively, adjusting the pace of change thoughtfully, and ensuring the credibility of immigration systems to facilitate mobility. It will also require rethinking narratives of national identity in destination societies, while ensuring that emigration from source countries, largely in Africa, can lead to long-term growth and development through proactive investments in human capital. And while this may initially seem to be a challenge just for the highly developed economies of Europe, North America, and East Asia, it will quickly become relevant in South Africa and significant parts of Latin America, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia.
Catch the summary of Dr Selee’s presentation below:
